盐城市水资源承载状态预警研究

在分析水资源承载状态预警概念的基础上,引入"三类六级"预警思想,采用可变模糊法和层次分析法的思想,构建盐城市水资源承载状态综合预警指标体系,评价盐城市2015年、2020年和2030年的水资源承载状态,并结合各年份承载状态变化趋势,对未来年份进行预警。结果表明:盐城市2015年水资源处于临界超载的状态,但随着"关于做好建立全国水资源承载能力监测预警机制工作的通知"等一系列措施的实施,2020年、2030年承载状态将逐步好转,到2030年将处于可载的状态。     

Forecasting stock price volatility: New evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS model

This paper introduces a combination of asymmetry and extreme volatility effects in order to build superior extensions of the GARCH-MIDAS model for modeling and forecasting the stock volatility. Our in-sample results clearly verify that extreme shocks have a significant impact on the stock volatility and that the volatility can be influenced more by the asymmetry effect than by the extreme volatility effect in both the long and short term. Out-of-sample results with several robustness checks demonstrate that our proposed models can achieve better performances in forecasting the volatility. Furthermore, the improvement in predictive ability is attributed more strongly to the introduction of asymmetry and extreme volatility effects for the short-term volatility component.     

Waste of money or growth opportunity: The causal effect of EU subsidies on Hungarian SMEs

Although EU subsidies aiming at economic development play a pivotal role not only for Hungary but for the entire European Union as well, there is a debate regarding their effectiveness in the literature. This paper investigates the impact of direct economic development subsidies extended in the context of Structural Funds and the Cohesion Fund as part of the 2007–2013 programming period of the European Union on Hungarian micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. Based on a micro database, we evaluate the impact of corporates’ first subsidies on various performance indicators, using a combination of propensity score matching and fixed effects panel regression. According to our results, economic development funds had a significant positive effect on the number of employees, sales revenue, gross value added and, in some cases, operating profit. However, the labour productivity of enterprises was not significantly affected by any of the support schemes. Furthermore, by explicitly comparing non-refundable subsidies (grants) and refundable assistance (financial instruments), we find that there is no significant difference in the effectiveness of the two types of subsidy.     

Pains and gains of environmental management system certification for the sustainable development of manufacturing companies: Heterogeneous effects of industry peer learning

Environmental sustainability is a growing global concern. Environmental management systems (EMS) could be an effective strategic tool to help firms deal with their sustainable development. However, whether EMS certification pays off financially and how it takes effect can be debated. Thus far, these questions remain largely under‐researched. In particular, the effects of EMS certification on financial performance are inconclusive, and the reasons explaining the effects are underdeveloped. This study aims to enrich the current research by exploring the mediating and moderating roles from the perspective of cost‐efficiency trade‐offs to reveal how EMS certification affects financial performance. Applying a PROCESS procedure analysis and causal mediation analysis to a sample of 1,751 Chinese listed manufacturing firms from 2008 to 2016, this study shows that the effect of EMS certification on firms' financial performance is insignificant because their operating costs burden increases while their marketing efficiency and managerial efficiency improve. For the first time, this study demonstrates the moderating role of industry peer learning, as the mediating effects decrease with the growth of industry peer learning.     

行车舒适性评价方法综述

由于行车舒适性影响因素较多,研究方法主要包含主观评价法与客观评价法,目前还没有比较完整的体系来对行车舒适性进行评价。文章将主要的行车舒适性评价方法进行汇总整理,将主要的评价方法分为两类,一类是从人与车的方面阐述行车舒适性评价方法;另一类是从车与路的方面阐述行车舒适性评价方法。现如今行车舒适性评价方法主要使用第一类方法,但随着智能交通的不断发展,人、车、路已经成为不可分割的整体,多种评价方法共用已经成为了一种趋势。     

基于ERP软件平台的管理沙盘仿真教学模式研究

文章结合了管理沙盘和ERP管理软件的各自特点,提出了适合于管理专业特色的基于ERP软件平台的管理沙盘仿真教学模式,旨在整合实践教学资源,使学生在学习和企业仿真模拟过程,体验到直观性和真实感,提升实践教学效果,培养学生的实践决策能力和必要的就业技能。     

科技馆免费开放评估指标体系研究

本文根据免费开放科技馆的功能属性，确定了科技馆免费开放评估指标体系的构建原则，考虑不同角度评估工作的重点，设计了适应不同主体和要求的科技馆免费开放评估指标体系，包括免费开放科技馆自评估指标体系、各级科协主管部门自评估指标体系和科技馆免费开放第三方评估指标体系，最后对主要指标和考察要点进行了总结说明。本文的研究成果，可以为免费开放科技馆和科协主管部门开展自评估以及第三方评估提供标准和依据，规范免费开放科技馆的评估和运行管理，为中国特色现代科技馆体系建设提供支持，为科技馆事业的可持续发展提供参考。     

Spatial and temporal analyses of potential land use conflict under the constraints of water resources in the middle reaches of the Heihe River

With the rapid urbanization in China, land resources are becoming increasingly scarce. Identifying and resolving land use conflict is essential for reasonably using land resources and achieving land sustainability. Taking the middle reaches of the Heihe River as an example, we included the constraints of local water resources to construct a multi-criteria evaluation system for assessing land use competitiveness in 2000 and 2015 based on land use, socio-economic, and nighttime light data. By comparing the competitiveness of cultivated land, construction land and ecological land, we then derived the spatiotemporal patterns of potential land use conflicts. Actual land use changes supported the hypothesis that land use tended to convert into the type with higher competitiveness at areas with intense conflict, which better indicated that our assessment model was effective. The results showed that the potential land use conflict was more acute in the central and northwest but weak in the southeast and northeast, and its pattern showed a significantly positive spatial autocorrelation. The conflict between cultivated land and construction land was most prominent and mainly occurred in the transitional zone from urban to rural areas. Rapid urban development and water shortage were the main causes of the potential land use conflict. Assessing land use multi-functions and making a tradeoff among ecological, economic, and social services will be an effective way to guide future land use to solve land use conflict. Our research provides scientific evidence for sustainable land use planning and management in the arid areas.     

An evaluation of contemporary China’s land use policy – The Link Policy: A case study from Ezhou,Hubei Province

Economic reform in China has resulted in rapid urbanisation over the past three decades, changing the urban and rural landscape dramatically. A large amount of farmland was developed, leading to conflict between construction demand and farmland protection. In response, the “Link Policy” was proposed in 2005 that seeks to concurrently preserve farmland while providing for urban expansion through land exchange. The effectiveness of the Link Policy has not been systematically investigated. The purpose of this study is to analyse and evaluate outcomes of the Link Policy objectives from both a participant and investigator’s interpretive perspective. Ezhou, the first experimental city to implement the Link Policy in Hubei Province in central China, was selected as a case study area. Eight different communities in Ezhou were visited and 160 semi-structured interviews were conducted with resettled rural residents in March 2016. A combination of interviews and investigator field observations were used to evaluate the Link Policy objectives. The results show that participants recognize and support improving rural living conditions and coordinating urban-rural development, but the Link Policy failed to achieve the objectives of preserving farmland, protecting farmers’ land use rights and interests, and facilitating agricultural production. Participants perceived concentrated resettlement communities to be more efficient in land use compared to more expansive rural settlements, but vacant apartments for commercial use in resettlement areas account for a large proportion of land suggesting inefficiency in the land exchanges. We suggest policy changes to achieve more successful implementation of the Link Policy.     

重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估中公众参与成熟度的影响路径

重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估中,公众是重要的参与主体,个体间生活环境、知识背景及心理素质的差异性会直接影响稳评结果。公众参与成熟度是公众参与的衡量要素,由能力成熟度和心理成熟度两个方面构成。从能力与心理两个角度设计调查问卷,运用结构方程模型,探究内部影响路径。结果表明,公众参与心理成熟度直接影响能力成熟度,而能力成熟度又通过参与意愿影响着心理成熟度,两者间存在相互影响的关系。政府可以通过开展道德素质教育,改善公众参与动机,以提高公众参与心理成熟度及能力成熟度,最终整体提高公众参与成熟度,保证稳评工作的质量,提升重大水利工程项目决策科学性。